The decline in the population of Germany is accelerating. In spite of all the political and social efforts for more family-friendly policies, Germany still has the lowest birthrate and number of children per 1000 inhabitants in the whole world.

According to a study published today by the Berlin Institute for Population and Development (Berlin-Institut für Bevölkerung und Entwicklung), each woman in Germany gives birth, statistically speaking, to 1.35 babies in her lifetime, the lowest rate since 1945. There is no end in sight to this trend, the study shows; on the contrary, it will only grow stronger-- with severe results for the retirement system and the economy of East Germany.

The number of children born between Flensburg and Füssen [i.e. in the former East Germany] will, according to the estimates of the private Institute, continue to decline until 2050. At that time only half as many children--340,000-- will be born in Germany every year as there are now. According to statistics, last year some 680,000 boys and girls came into the world [in Germany]. Because of the sinking birthrate and aging society, the experts estimate that there will be growing immigration from young, highly qualified expert workers from developmentally weak regions, especially to East Germany.

This decline can no longer be stopped, but only lessened, said Hans Fleisch, the chairman of the Institute. He is asking for a national drive with the cooperation of all groups in society. In themselves, measures such as the extension of public child care do not have any effect to speak of.

"The negative demographic development of Germany is still increasing," Fleisch said. In the past two years, the decline in population has definitively set in. The very low birthrate of the past three decades has sunk even further. "So Germany is the leader in the negative sense," said Institute Director Reiner Klingholz.

Only the Vatican has a lower birthrate than East Germany

The new provinces [of the former East Germany] will be especially hard hit by the decline in population, in the estimates of the Institute, which is funded by private foundations. Here there will be a greater tendency for young and well-educated women to emigrate to western Germany, said Klingholz. Unemployed and badly educated men will stay behind, and therefore they will not be starting families. No later than 2015, East Germany will experience the "second demographic shock," when because of the decline in births after 1990, half the new generation of parents will be missing. After the reunification of Germany, the birthrate in the former East Germany went down to .77 children per woman. "That was the lowest rate anywhere in the world except for the Vatican," said Klingholz.

Klingholz expects that until 2025 there will be further emigration from underdeveloped regions, including, besides the new provinces, parts of the Ruhr and Saarland areas. This will profit the wealthier regions, especially Bavaria and Baden-Württemberg. There will be a  struggle among those who earn more. "There will be no question of equality of living conditions," said Klingholz, and pointed to the fact that since 1990, one and a half million people have moved away from East Germany. Of the 20 urban regions with negative future growth, 19 are in East Germany-- ten in Sachsen-Anhalt, which has suffered the most from the breakdown of industry.

As a way out, the authors of the study suggest making it easier for women to combine a family and a career.  Boys must also be encouraged much more, as they have fallen far behind girls. "We have let a young male proletariat develop which represents a social fire hazard," said Klingholz. Building back the community should be done soon and in a humane fashion. The researchers also plead for a unified effort among the regions of Germany. The housing industry is demanding, as a consequence of the study, that an urban rebuilding program should go on after the projected final year of 2009.

The researchers aim pointed criticism at businesses and unions who lack a sense of responsibility in the demographic decline. "A strike will be organized for 18 minutes of work time, but not for family-friendly policies at work," said Fleisch, referring to the salary conflict in public service.

--Volker Warkentin, Reuters DE